6 comments
45 forecasters
Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?
98%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 98% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 7, 2023
Closes:Nov 30, 2023
Resolved:Dec 6, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 9, 2023
Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?
95% chance
100
Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?
98% chance
19
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?
24 May 2027
(11 Oct 2026 - Oct 2031)
24 May 2027
(11 Oct 2026 - Oct 2031)
7 forecasters