Question

Will large language models become the state of the art for machine translation in 2023?

Resolved:Yes

6 comments6

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction

98%

(94% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 98%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

24.0

Community Peer Score

11.7

Authors:

evenius

Opened:

Sep 7, 2023

Closes:

Nov 30, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 6, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 9, 2023

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

90%

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

90%

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

18 Feb 2025