Question

Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters85

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

median 99.0%mean 88.4%

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Zaporizhia

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Ukraine

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

BrunoParga

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Zaporizhia

Annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation

Ukraine

Russian troops grind towards Pokrovsk, take second Ukrainian town in a week

Al Jazeera•Oct 9, 2024

Mapped: Russia advances in Donetsk as it claims to have captured Ukrainian settlements Zolota Nyva and Zhelanna Pershe

Independent•Oct 9, 2024

Ukraine War Map Shows Russia Ramp Up Gains Across Donetsk Front Line

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

2024 US Presidential Election Winner? (Donald Trump) → Ukrainian territory lost in 2029?

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

20%