18 forecasters

Will Turkey recognize the Armenian genocide before 2050?

12%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 16, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 19, 2023