13 comments
32 forecasters
Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?
65%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 65% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 22, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolved:Jan 14, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 24, 2023
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Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?
0.1% chance
60
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3% chance
319
Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?
5% chance
52