13 comments
32 forecasters
Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?
65%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 65% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Sep 22, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Resolved:Jan 14, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 24, 2023
Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?
1.7% chance
53
Will Elon Musk hold major political office in the United States before February 2033?
3% chance
317
Will Elon Musk's million-dollar giveaway to register voters be considered illegal on December 31, 2025?
7% chance
43