Question
When will an LLM replace GPT-4 at the top of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard?
Resolved:26 Mar 2024 17:30Total Forecasters46
Community Prediction
19 Apr 2024
(21 Mar 2024 12:55 - 04 Jul 2024)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 21 Mar 2024 12:55 | — |
| median | 19 Apr 2024 | — |
| upper 75% | 04 Jul 2024 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2025 | 3.9% | — |
What was the final result?26 Mar 2024 17:30
Community Baseline Score
7.0
Community Peer Score
11.2
Authors:
Opened:Sep 23, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Dec 31, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 25, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Sep 23, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Dec 31, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 25, 2023