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3 comments
17 forecasters

Will the listed AI companies/labs have merge and assist clauses on January 1st 2025?

OpenAIresult: Yes
Anthropicresult: No
Google DeepMindresult: No
Authors:
jleibowichwill_aldred
Opened:Sep 29, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 10, 2025
AI Safety
Artificial Intelligence
Computing and Math
2021-2025 Leaderboard
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Will OpenAI have triggered its 'Assist Clause' in order to support another lab, before January 1st of the following years?

2031
12%
2026
1%
27 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

1% chance
395

Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?

15% chance
33
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