Question

Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?

Resolved:Yes
18
23
Total Forecasters108
Community Prediction
99%
(92% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score
5.0
Community Baseline Score
35.3
Authors:
jleibowichkokotajlodwill_aldred
Opened:Sep 28, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Dec 31, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 29, 2023
AI Safety
Artificial Intelligence
Computing and Math
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