Question

Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

12 comments12

Total Forecasters87

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

7.5

Community Baseline Score

95.7

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Sep 29, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 30, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

15%

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

33.3%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Sep 29, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 30, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

15%

Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

33.3%