16 comments
39 forecasters
Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 4, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolved:Jan 24, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 6, 2023
Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?
45% chance
30
Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?
5% chance
128
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
85 forecasters