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20
90
forecasters
9
20 comments
90 forecasters
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
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How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?
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1 comment
20 forecasters
Will Johnson remain Speaker until end of 119th Congress?
50%
chance
4 comments
27 forecasters
Dem House before 2027?
10.6%
chance
28 comments
561 forecasters
US House plurality after 2026 midterms?
Democrats
81%
Republicans
18.9%
Other
0.1%
0 comments
177 forecasters
Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?
4%
chance
5 comments
62 forecasters
GOP House advantage after 2026 midterms?
Current estimate
-8.03 seats
14 comments
504 forecasters
Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?
7%
chance
12 comments
77 forecasters
How many times will Trump be impeached?
2
42.4%
3
41.4%
4
13.1%
5 or more
3%
0 comments
94 forecasters
Nominee blocked from US statewide office ballot by opposition in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
5%
2027-2028
10%