Question
How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?
Resolved:4Total Forecasters90
Community Prediction
6.75
(4.42 - 10.1)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 4.419 | — |
| median | 6.747 | — |
| upper 75% | 10.09 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 | 1.0% | — |
What was the final result?4
Community Peer Score
26.0
Authors:
Opened:Oct 5, 2023
Closes:Oct 18, 2023
Resolves:Oct 25, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 5, 2023
Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?
16%
Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?
5%
Which party will hold a plurality in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?
Authors:
Opened:Oct 5, 2023
Closes:Oct 18, 2023
Resolves:Oct 25, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 5, 2023
Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?
16%
Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?
5%