126 forecasters

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

2024result: No

2025result: Yes

2026Annulled

2028

2024

2025

Authors:

RyanBeck will_aldred NMorrison

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Resolved:

Oct 21, 2025

AI Demonstrations

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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