126 forecasters

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

2024result: No

2025result: Yes

2026Annulled

2028

2024

2025

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2027

Resolved:

Oct 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch