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Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?
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| Year | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | yes | |||
2024 | no | |||
2026 | 70% | |||
2028 | 60% | |||
Resolved Dec 31, 2024
Community Baseline Score
-140.7
Community Peer Score
18.7
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Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 73
Authors:
Opened:Oct 10, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2028
Authors:
Opened:Oct 10, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2028