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🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Learn more, and share your feedback and questions here

Group

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

7
21

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

CandidatesMe
2025
20%
2028
30%
2026
27%
2024
no
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AI Demonstrations
Effective Institutions Project
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Game theory
Mathematics
Elo rating system

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