276 comments

669 forecasters

Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?

1%chance

1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 8, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 3, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 8, 2023

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Israel-Gaza Conflict

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Israel’s military begins its ground offensive in Gaza City and thousands of residents flee

PBS NewsHour•Sep 16, 2025

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CNBC•Sep 16, 2025

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Daily Mail•Sep 16, 2025

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