2 comments
82 forecasters
Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 10, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 23, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 11, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
9% chance
81
If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?
17% chance
40
Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?
4% chance
1.2k