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64
174
forecasters
25
64 comments
174 forecasters
AGI Outcomes
3 more...
When will we have transformative AI?
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Current estimate
Jun 2039
Jun 2039
(30 May 2030 - Jan 2061)
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (64)
Timeline
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25 comments
67 forecasters
Years Between GWP Growth >25% and AGI
Current estimate
5.05 years
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Date of GWP Growth Over 130%
Current estimate
Mar 2059
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FLOP usage for training transformative AI
Current estimate
5.5×10³⁰ FLOP
26 comments
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GWP Doubles in 4 Years vs. 1 Year by 2050
56%
chance
8 comments
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GWP Doubles in <4 Years by 2050
40%
chance
20 comments
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GWP Doubles in 8 Years vs. 2 Years By 2050
66.7%
chance
39 comments
178 forecasters
GDP growth to exceed 30% 15-years post HLAI
50%
chance
51 comments
344 forecasters
Time From (weak) AGI to Superintelligence
Current estimate
34 months