• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
6
77 forecasters
8
6 comments
77 forecasters
Conditional Cup
condition

Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit?

Resolved:No
77 forecasters
if yes
if no

ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?

92%
92%
Resolved:Annulled

ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?

93%
93%
Resolved:Yes
if Yes92%
if No(Yes)
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Public Benefit Corporation

Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

ExploreQuestionsTournamentsTournaments for AI botsFutureEval
ServicesLaunch a TournamentPrivate InstancesPro Forecasters
CompanyAboutCareersFAQ
ResourcesForecasting ResourcesFor JournalistsAPI
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
6 comments55 forecasters

Will Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?

Current estimate
Revealed in 3 hours
%chance
14 comments62 forecasters

AI resolving questions on Metaculus

2025result: No
203070%
203591%
204090%
205096%
5 comments90 forecasters

Before 2029, will a new AI safety org form with 3+ G7 members?

49%chance
6 comments97 forecasters

Will OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet CEO pledge AI autonomy limits before 2027?

10%chance
1 comment43 forecasters

GPT-6 release date?

Current estimate
14 Nov 2026
21 comments110 forecasters

US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?

5%chance
4 comments14 forecasters

Global Partnership on AI Still Active?

2026result: Yes
203133%
10 comments76 forecasters

Before 2032 will central bank or finance ministry credit an ai forecast?

20%chance