155 forecasters

Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?

85%chance

85%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 85% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 20, 2023

Closes:

Oct 31, 2023

Resolved:

Oct 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 21, 2023

Israel-Gaza Conflict

2023 Leaderboard

One in Four Gaza City Residents Evacuates Ahead of Battle: IDF

Breitbart•Sep 14, 2025

Israel ramps up strikes on Gaza City, hospital says at least 32 are dead

NBC•Sep 14, 2025

‘We took the gloves off’: ex-IDF chief confirms Gaza casualties over 200,000

Guardian•Sep 12, 2025

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