12 comments
12 forecasters
When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?
Current estimate
30 Jan 2026
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 2, 2023
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
55% chance
33
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
11 forecasters