Question
When will a large language model with a context window of at least 5 million tokens be freely accessible to anyone?
Total Forecasters12
Community Prediction
23 Sep 2025
(29 Dec 2024 - 19 Jul 2026)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <02 Jan 2024 | 8.3% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 29 Dec 2024 | — |
| median | 23 Sep 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 19 Jul 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >Dec 2049 | 0.1% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 2, 2023
Authors:
Opened:Oct 30, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 2, 2023