402 forecasters

Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?

0.1%chance

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 26, 2023

Closes:

Oct 7, 2024

Resolved:

Oct 8, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 29, 2023

Israel-Gaza Conflict

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Israeli fighter jets launched ballistic missiles from the Red Sea in Qatar strike, official says

Associated Press•Sep 17, 2025

Israeli fighter jets launched ballistic missiles from the Red Sea in Qatar strike, official says

Independent•Sep 17, 2025

Israel is waging war for war’s sake

Spectator (UK)•Sep 17, 2025

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