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7 comments
131 forecasters

Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?

99.4%chance
99.4%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:Nov 1, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 3, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 4, 2023
🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
Politics
🏆 2023 Leaderboard
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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

5% chance
133

Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?

10% chance
22

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

40% chance
82
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