7 comments
131 forecasters
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?
99.4%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 1, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 3, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 4, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?
5% chance
133
Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?
10% chance
22
Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?
40% chance
82