347 forecasters

Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025?

Contestedresult: Yes

Israelresult: No

International Governmentresult: No

Contested

Israel

International Government

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 4, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 24, 2025

Israel-Gaza Conflict

🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard

How Israel is using ‘no war, no peace’ Lebanonisation model in Gaza

Al Jazeera•Nov 4, 2025

War Is Coming Back to Gaza

Atlantic•Nov 4, 2025

Doing the desert disco

American Thinker•Oct 31, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

Will Israel Take Control of Gaza City before Jan 20, 2029?

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?