🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

conditional
condition

2024 US election considered fraudulent?

Resolved :No
18 forecasters
if yes
if no

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

55%
55%
Resolved :Annulled55%

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

25%
25%
4
4

Make a Prediction

2024 US election considered fraudulent?

Civil Unrest or Rioting in US Before 2031?

50%
community: 55%
The question "Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?" resolves.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
txmerritt
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Politics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
1992 Los Angeles riots
Morning Consult
The Washington Post
Associated Press
Fox News
Elections in the United States
US Electoral College
Republican Party (US)
Donald Trump

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