Question
Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters121
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
51.7
Community Baseline Score
87.7
Authors:
Opened:Nov 7, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 8, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
7%
Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?
45%
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?
10%
Authors:
Opened:Nov 7, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 8, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?
7%
Will 3 mainstream American news outlets report that a rebel group perpetrated the 2013 Ghouta Chemical Attack before August 21, 2033?
45%
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?
10%