124 forecasters

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

95%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

TimeTraveller34

Opened:

Feb 25, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 28, 2024

Artificial Intelligence

2024-2025 Leaderboard

The AI-powered humanoid robots coming for your job (or at least your housework)

NBC•Sep 17, 2025

OpenAI Ramps Up Robotics Work in Race Toward AGI

Wired•Sep 15, 2025

Could AI nursing robots help healthcare staffing shortages?

CNN•Sep 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?

Before 2030, will a commercially available, general-purpose robot capable of learning new tasks via video be priced under $20,000 USD?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?