Question

Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolved:No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 0.1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.0

Community Peer Score

5.3

Authors:

NMorrison NathanpmYoung Cato

Opened:

Nov 17, 2023

Closes:

Nov 4, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 20, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 20, 2023

Elections

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Almost Half of Democrats Say a Third Party Is Necessary—Poll

Newsweek•Jun 20, 2025

Rust Belt Voters Are Sick of Both Parties

Jacobin•Jun 20, 2025

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