Question

Will more than 80% of the new US electricity Generation Capacity in 2016 come from solar and wind?

Resolved:No

16 comments16

Total Forecasters133

Community Prediction

30%

(15% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

14.5

Community Peer Score

11.7

Authors:

Adrian

Opened:

Mar 30, 2016

Closes:

Sep 1, 2016

Resolves:

Feb 22, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 30, 2016

Environment & Climate

Technology

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Three Mile Island Alert

•Jun 23, 2025

Wind and Solar Energy Are Cheaper Than Electricity from Fossil-Fuel Plants

Scientific American•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of U.S. electricity will come from renewable sources (wind, solar, hydro) in 2025?

24.1

Will renewable energy have a higher energy production share in the US than combined fossil fuels and nuclear in any month before 2050?

75%

Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?

Authors:

Adrian

Opened:

Mar 30, 2016

Closes:

Sep 1, 2016

Resolves:

Feb 22, 2018

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 30, 2016

Environment & Climate

Technology

2016-2017 Leaderboard

Three Mile Island Alert

•Jun 23, 2025

Wind and Solar Energy Are Cheaper Than Electricity from Fossil-Fuel Plants

Scientific American•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of U.S. electricity will come from renewable sources (wind, solar, hydro) in 2025?

24.1

Will renewable energy have a higher energy production share in the US than combined fossil fuels and nuclear in any month before 2050?

75%