Question
Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters73
Community Prediction
1%
(0.1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
3.8
Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2023
Closes:Dec 14, 2023
Resolves:Dec 15, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 23, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
5%
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
6%
Authors:
Opened:Nov 22, 2023
Closes:Dec 14, 2023
Resolves:Dec 15, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 23, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
5%
Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?
6%