5 comments
21 forecasters
Will "Krantz data" play a critical role in the alignment of artificial superintelligence before 2100?
0.1%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 8, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 11, 2023
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
25% chance
422
What percentage of AI alignment experts surveyed in 2029 will consider alignment techniques at the time to be sufficient?
40.6%
(21.9 - 54.8)
40.6%
(21.9 - 54.8)
35 forecasters
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
78% chance
34