Question

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

no comments0

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction

70%

(64% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 70%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2028

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

Two Chinese nationals in California accused of illegally shipping Nvidia AI chips to China

CNN•Aug 7, 2025

White House’s Plan For Advanced Chips Regulations Starts To Emerge

Forbes•Aug 7, 2025

This Artificial Intelligence Stock Plays an Important Role in Chip Production, but It's Down 14% in 12 Months. Could It Be a Bargain Buy?

•Aug 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm market an ArFi photolithography machine before 2025?

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

80%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

87%