• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
10 comments
39 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm91%
≤2 nm50%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
DerMannOhneEigenschaften
Opened:Dec 6, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Chinese AI Chips
AI in China
Technology
Computing and Math
Independent logo
Nvidia set to become first $5 trillion company in the world after unveiling supercomputer plans and $500 billion in AI chip orders
Independent•Oct 29, 2025
Associated Press logo
Chipmaker Nvidia on track to become first $5 trillion company
Associated Press•Oct 29, 2025
CNBC logo
Amazon opens $11 billion AI data center in rural Indiana as rivals race to break ground
CNBC•Oct 29, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

79% chance
32

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

90% chance
38

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE
44%
Naura
35%
AMEC
30%
1 other
18 forecasters
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature