Group
Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?
Forecast Timeline
Total Forecasters 36
Make a Prediction
| Process node | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
≤3 nm | 90% | |||
≤5 nm | 99% | |||
≤2 nm | 49.4% | |||
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Dec 6, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?
75%
Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?
85%
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?
Authors:
Opened:Dec 6, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?
75%
Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?
85%