• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
10 comments
38 forecasters

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

≤5 nm99%
≤3 nm91%
≤2 nm47%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
DerMannOhneEigenschaften
Opened:Dec 6, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Chinese AI Chips
AI in China
Technology
Computing and Math
Forbes logo
Next Silicon’s Dataflow Chip Could Disrupt The Processor Landscape
Forbes•Oct 22, 2025
Daily Mail logo
The California tech 'traitors' putting profits over patriotism by selling war secrets to our biggest foe
Daily Mail•Oct 20, 2025
TechCrunch logo
Your AI tools run on fracked gas and bulldozed Texas land
TechCrunch•Oct 18, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

79% chance
31

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

90% chance
36

Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?

SMEE
44%
Naura
35%
AMEC
30%
1 other
17 forecasters
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature