Question

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters49

Community Prediction

62%

(30% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 62%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

DerMannOhneEigenschaften

Opened:

Dec 6, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2033

Scheduled resolution:

Mar 1, 2033

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

AMD's AI Moment May Be Coming. Will It Seize It?

Forbes•Jun 26, 2025

Nvidia's comeback sparks a rally in Asian chip stocks

•Jun 26, 2025

Nvidia shares hit record high as Wall Street shakes off anxiety about AI chip export controls

New York Post•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

32%

Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?

75%

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

85%