Question
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?
Total Forecasters49
Community Prediction
62%
(30% - 75%)
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 6, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2033
Scheduled resolution:Mar 1, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 20, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?
32%
Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?
75%
Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?
85%
Authors:
Opened:Dec 6, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2033
Scheduled resolution:Mar 1, 2033
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 20, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?
32%
Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?
75%
Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?
85%