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In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?
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Total Forecasters 18
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| Year | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2027 | 22% | |||
2028 or later | 40% | |||
2026 | 34% | |||
2025 | 14% | |||
2024 or before | no | |||
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 29, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
15 Jan 2026
When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
12 Jun 2026
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
Dec 2035
Authors:
Opened:Nov 29, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2040
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2040
When will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad?
15 Jan 2026
When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?
12 Jun 2026
When will an AI system, operating independently, solve or determine the undecidability of a Millennium Prize Problem and have its proof or disproof published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal?
Dec 2035