Question

Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?

Resolved:Yes

5 comments5

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction

50%

(35% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

3.3

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Nov 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2023

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Elections

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

Sen. Thom Tillis announces he won't seek reelection after Trump threatens primary challenge

CBS•Jun 29, 2025

Sen. Thom Tillis announces he won't seek reelection after Trump threatens primary challenge

CBS•Jun 29, 2025

GOP Sen. Thom Tillis won't seek re-election after drawing Trump's ire

•Jun 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

45%

Will Ron DeSantis become US president by 2029?

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Nov 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2023

🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆

Elections

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

Sen. Thom Tillis announces he won't seek reelection after Trump threatens primary challenge

CBS•Jun 29, 2025

Sen. Thom Tillis announces he won't seek reelection after Trump threatens primary challenge

CBS•Jun 29, 2025

GOP Sen. Thom Tillis won't seek re-election after drawing Trump's ire

•Jun 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?

Will the President of the United States be a member of the Republican Party throughout the entirety of next two presidential terms (spanning 2025-2033)?

45%