Question

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

40 comments40

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 0.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

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Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Dec 1, 2023

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 4, 2023

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Natural Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Dec 1, 2023

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 4, 2023

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Natural Sciences

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will the peak 7-day average of COVID-19 cases OR CLI in Virginia during a summer exceed the same peak during the preceding winter for any year before 1 November 2026?

43%

Will there be two or more COVID-19 hospitalization waves in the United States in at least one of the 2028 and 2029 respiratory disease seasons?

34%