50 forecasters

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 1, 2023

Closes:

Jun 30, 2025

Resolved:

Sep 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 4, 2023