31 forecasters

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

15%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Dec 31, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jul 31, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 3, 2024

US Reacts to Confrontation Between China and Treaty Ally

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2025

China accuses Philippines of ship collision near disputed shoal in South China Sea

CBS•Sep 17, 2025

China Attacks Philippine Ships with Water Cannons in South China Sea

Breitbart•Sep 17, 2025

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