41 forecasters

If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?

66%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 12, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 3, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 15, 2023

Venezuela and US edge toward war footing − but domestic concerns, international risks may hold Washington back

The Conversation•Oct 2, 2025

Venezuela’s Maduro says he is ready to declare state of emergency if US attacks

CNN•Oct 1, 2025

Venezuela’s Maduro Ready To Declare State of Emergency If US Attacks

AntiWar•Sep 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch