171 forecasters

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

2.5%chance

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 18, 2023

Closes:

Jan 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

Trump keeps flirting with the idea of a third term. That would be unconstitutional

NPR Online News•Oct 30, 2025

Why Trump Keeps Talking About a Third Term

New Yorker•Oct 30, 2025

How Donald Trump Could Serve a Third Term in 2028: Four Possible Options

Newsweek•Oct 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch