168 forecasters

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

3%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 18, 2023

Closes:

Jan 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2029

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 20, 2023

'Fundamental tension' drives 2 competing 'theories' on 'mad king' Trump: political scholar

AlterNet•Sep 16, 2025

Is a new civil war in the U.S. possible?

Strategic Culture•Sep 12, 2025

Can Trump run for president again? Two Supreme Court justices are skeptical

USA Today•Sep 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch