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7
103
forecasters
18
7 comments
103 forecasters
Situational Awareness
4 more...
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
Predict
Follow
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For-profit
83%
Government
20%
Non-profit
5%
University
4%
2 others
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (7)
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11 comments
76 forecasters
Non-profit organization develops first AGI
10%
chance
3 comments
95 forecasters
Government project develops first AGI
12%
chance
3 comments
127 forecasters
Corporation develops first AGI
89%
chance
3 comments
95 forecasters
University group develops first AGI
2%
chance
5 comments
78 forecasters
Who will develop the first AGI?
Alphabet
33.1%
Anthropic
26.4%
OpenAI
21.6%
Other
10.5%
2 others
18 comments
76 forecasters
Nationalized organization develops first AGI
15%
chance
10 comments
41 forecasters
Number of New Leading AI Labs
0 or 1
49.8%
2 or 3
32.9%
4 or 5
11.9%
6 or 7
3.2%
2 others
15 comments
41 forecasters
Leading Lab No Safety
2026
result:
Yes
2030
28%
2036
20%