Question

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?

Resolved:No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction

15%

(5% - 27.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

40.4

Community Peer Score

1.8

Authors:

will_aldred fist

Opened:

Jan 11, 2024

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 14, 2024

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