Question

Will Wikileaks publish the full "Panama Papers" in a publicly-accessible and searchable format?

Resolved:No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction

46%

(39% - 54%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 46%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-20.0

Community Peer Score

33.6

Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

Opened:

Apr 6, 2016

Closes:

Jun 20, 2016

Resolves:

Dec 30, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 6, 2016

Politics

Computing and Math

2016 Leaderboard

Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?

31.9%

Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?

13.5%

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

59%

Authors:

ChristianKleineidam

Opened:

Apr 6, 2016

Closes:

Jun 20, 2016

Resolves:

Dec 30, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 6, 2016

Politics

Computing and Math

2016 Leaderboard

Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?

31.9%

Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?

13.5%

Will a exascale volume of connectome be mapped and revealed to the public by June 2031?

59%