• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
17 comments
28 forecasters

When will the D.C. federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (election subversion case)

Current estimate
>01 Jan 2026
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Jgalt
Opened:Dec 14, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 17, 2023
Law
Politics
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard
MSNBC logo
Trump DOJ tries to erase Jan. 6 history as scholars warn of authoritarianism in Comey case
MSNBC•Nov 1, 2025
FOX News logo
Alvin Bragg dodges mentioning signature Trump case as he campaigns for district attorney re-election
FOX News•Nov 1, 2025
USA Today logo
Trump appeals hush money conviction, claims ‘fatal flaws’ tainted trial
USA Today•Oct 29, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the federal criminal trial of Donald J. Trump begin? (classified documents case)

>01 Jan 2026
(>01 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2026)
>01 Jan 2026
(>01 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2026)
31 forecasters

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

28 Oct 2029
(06 Sep 2028 - 22 Nov 2029)
28 Oct 2029
(06 Sep 2028 - 22 Nov 2029)
19 forecasters

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

1% chance
802
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature