64 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

10%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 11, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 14, 2023

Effective Institutions Project

Regulation of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

JAMES ERWIN: ‘Effective Altruists’ Want China To Win The AI Race

Daily Caller•Sep 17, 2025

Trump pushes TikTok deadline as new details emerge on a US-China deal over social media giant

Independent•Sep 17, 2025

Trump delays TikTok ban enforcement again ahead of expected China deal

CBS•Sep 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal law, regulation, or executive order mandating safety checks for AI models be enacted, issued, or adopted in the United States before January 20, 2029?

Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?